October brought fresh signs that inflation is proving hard to shift. Annual inflation rose to 4.3%, the Reserve Bank kept the door open to further rate rises, and the home loan and term deposit rates we track both moved higher. The month closed with attention on the RBA's next decision, on Tuesday 3 November.

Inflation jumped to 4.3%

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 28 October that the Consumer Price Index rose 4.3% in the year to September, up from 4.0% in the year to August. Housing was the largest contributor, rising 5.2% over the year as the costs of new dwellings and electricity climbed.

Over the September quarter, the CPI rose 1.3%. Trimmed mean inflation, which leaves out the largest price moves at both ends, was 3.6% over the year, up from a revised 3.5% in August. On the ABS's pre-October 2025 basis, it rose 1.0% in the quarter. The ABS said automotive fuel was left out of the trimmed mean in September, and that this was a key driver of the gap between the headline and trimmed mean measures. The ABS said measures like the trimmed mean can give more insight into how underlying inflation is trending, without the impact of temporary shocks.

The cash rate and the RBA

The cash rate target has been 4.60% since the RBA's Monetary Policy Board raised it by 25 basis points on 29 September, its fourth rise this year. In its statement, the Board said "some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising", pointing to higher global energy prices and pressure on domestic capacity.

The minutes of that meeting, released on 13 October, showed members acknowledged that "waiting for further confirmation of the outlook for inflation could be costly". Earlier in the month, on 1 October, the RBA's Financial Stability Review found that most households with mortgages "remain well placed to manage more difficult conditions", although it noted pockets of stress.

Source: RBA.

The jobs market softened. The ABS reported on 15 October that the unemployment rate was 4.7% in September, with 39,000 fewer people employed than in August.

Borrowers: home loan rates moved higher

Across the home loans we track, the average owner-occupier variable rate for principal and interest loans rose from 6.65% on 30 September to 6.88% on 31 October, a rise of 23 basis points. The average owner-occupier fixed rate rose from 6.59% to 6.75% over the same period.

The property market kept falling. Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 1.2% in October, its seventh consecutive monthly fall, leaving the index 6.7% below its March peak. In its September statement, the RBA noted that "housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing loans have declined noticeably". Our home loan comparison lists variable and fixed rates lender by lender.

Savers: deposit rates moved up

Term deposit rates rose. The median 12-month rate we track went from 5.20% to 5.30% over the month, and the median 6-month rate from 4.90% to 5.10%, while the median 3-month rate held at 4.30%. We quote medians here because foreign-currency deposits paying close to zero joined our data on 16 October and pulled the averages down. The highest openly available 12-month rate we track reached 5.60%, at Bank Australia, and Community First Bank matches it on a limited offer for new money. Gateway Bank also lists a 12-month rate of 5.65%, but only as part of a package, with no details of what the package involves. More information is available by speaking to Gateway.

Savings accounts moved the same way. The average bonus rate, paid in months when an account's conditions are met, rose from 4.09% to 4.23%. The average base rate rose from 1.87% to 1.98% by 28 October, the last reading before a large batch of accounts joined our data. Rates by term and by account are on our term deposit comparison and savings account comparison.

What to watch in November

The RBA announces its next decision at 2:30pm Sydney time on Tuesday 3 November. CommBank economists changed their call on 28 October and now expect the Board to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.85%. "The key question is whether four hikes this year is enough," CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said.

Later in the month, the ABS releases its Lending Indicators on 11 November, showing how much new lending households and businesses took on in the September quarter. The Rate Tracker follows average home loan, savings and term deposit rates day by day.